Kass: A Contagion of Black Swans
A year ago, he puts:
The Black Swans Have Returned
Kass seems to like the idea of black swans very much and many people tend to buy that idea. But it can be overabused. We have a vague criteria to call an incident a Black Swan. In terms of quantitative criteria, did we get to a consensus measure to decide which event is a Black Swan?