Monday, 30 March 2009

Bad news again ... Very serious

GM Says Bankruptcy Is ‘More Probable,’ Still Not ‘Preferred’ => ah ah ah

Obama Says GM, Chrysler Have Last Chance to Survive (Correct) => if they die ... we are dead

Deutsche Bank’s Banziger Says Crisis ‘Far From Over’ (Update1) => Bạn này đi đổ dầu vào lửa

Stocks Drop Most in 3 Weeks as U.S. Warns on Banks, Carmakers

Sunday, 29 March 2009

Chuyện vui TC-KT VN

Hoàn nhập dự phòng giảm giá hàng tồn kho - Chung qui là chuyện thuế (rộng ra là chuyện tiền ... Đủ thấy kế toán tính kỹ thế nào)

Hot FX news next week - G20 and the dollar

G20 redefine the USD trend

Báo nhà mình thì giật tít hấp dẫn hơn ...

Remind: New currency scheme proposed by China

IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn says it is a good proposal!!! (I dont think so)

And US tend to be open the proposal!!!

Last remind: Inflation again - No deflation => Bew Equilibrium? Weak Dollar & High Inflation Ah ah ah, I don't want that. VND is weeeeak to USD, and USD is weaaaak to sth else, so, ...!

US still has bad news

US jobs still slump! => ặc ặc

Geithner Says Some Banks to Need ‘Large Amounts’ of Assistance => tiền đâu?

“Some banks are going to need some large amounts of assistance,” Geithner said today on the ABC News program “This Week.” The terms of a $500 billion public-private program to aid banks “cannot change” for investors or they’ll lose confidence in the plan, he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Geithner said the Treasury has about $135 billion left in a financial-stability fund while declining to say whether he will request additional money. => tưởng cứ xin là cho chắc!

Thursday, 26 March 2009

New bank regulation - And bear market rally?

Stock rally, Somebody says "Bear market rally"

Có cả tin về Geither's regulation trong đó.

Geithner Calls for ‘New Rules of the Game’ in Finance

Brown ‘Terribly Fragile’ After Bond Auction Flops

BOA raise investment bank salary - Higher salary, "lower bonuses"

Bonuses will become a “smaller” portion of total compensation, Moynihan wrote in the memo.

Wednesday, 25 March 2009

Financial world is still in crisis

Hedge fund pay fall

UK bond auction fail - What it really means?

Very bad - People talk about AIG again ... Thưởng chi cho lắm

The world new money! Great: China said it

As the various level of incentives are just getting into the economic system, financial markets might start to discount current recession and target the next scenario, which could be characterized by a weaker dollar and higher inflation numbers. => God, it is killing me!

Markets are starting the look over?

Howard Ruff : Great, if Ruff is right, we will be all dead.

Inflation is rising again in Europe

The economic contraction is intensifying in Europe and consumes are fading away. German foreign trade surplus printed Euro 8.3 billion in January, the lowest of the past 7 years, as export fell 4.4% month on month (20.7% yearly) and imports declined 0.8% on the top of December down move of almost 5.0%. In effect, things are not going well for the leading economic power in Europe. Industrial production, as an example, fell to the lowest level in modern history to -7.5% months on month in January (-4.0% expected). Manufacturing (-8.4%) and construction (-7.8%) were the weakest spots in production, which fell more than 19.0% on a yearly basis. However, it is the entire Euro zone to suffer by the global contraction, albeit ECB’s president Trichet expects growth the shortly pick up again, following various level of intervention.

The European Central Bank might cut rates again to 1.0% in the coming meetings, but the down cycle of interest rates could be closer to an end, since inflation remains the main issue for the ECB. For the first time in various months, German CPI rose 1.0% year on year in February from an up move of 0.9% in January. For now, nevertheless, growth is contracting everywhere. In France, non-farm payroll declined 0.7% in the fourth quarter of last year from the third quarter, marking the worst contraction in 40 years. Industrial production slid instead 3.1% and manufacturing production moved back 4.1%. Finally, for the eight consecutive month, retail sales receded in the Euro zone. In January, they dropped 2.2% versus December’s decline of 2.4%.

The global economic recession is hitting demand for U.S exports, while domestic request is fading away along with the household wealth. As a result, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to USD 36 billion in January from USD 39.9 billion in December 2008 (markets estimated a balance of USD 38.4 billion). Exports moved down more than 16% yearly, while imports declined 22.8%. Industrial production fell 1.4% in February after having declined 1.9% in January. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates near 0 for most of the year, and beyond, if the economic growth will not pick up tangibly over the coming months. In effect, the potential demand for treasury securities might increase, but household wealth has declined 20% since topping in 2007. Such a move was not seen since the end of War World 2 and again testifies the peculiarity of current moment. The huge power shift from the credit to the debit era is still in motion and time is required to find a new equilibrium for the world economies.

In the week ending March 7th, US jobless claims rose to 654,000, more than the expected 644,000., while the four-week moving average is now at 650,000, the largest decline of the past 26 years. Retail sales moved slightly lower 0.1% in February versus the expected 0.5%. Auto sales fell 4.3% in the month, but the down move was balanced by the increase of sales for other components. The rise of gasoline prices, as an example, was one major tractor last month. However, the up move was broad based, January retail sale numbers changed to 1.8% from 1.0%, reflecting a tentative stabilization of sales. In effect, the financial markets might somehow begin to discount the actual economic recession and preparing for the next scenario, which could be characterized by a weaker dollar and higher inflation numbers.

Some good news

More goods order, more home sales - signs of recovery

Inventory drops: Is it good news? Not sure

IBM cut jobs: no problem

Still worry: Us auction - higher yield

Bên lề: nước Mỹ trong khủng hoảng - Giáo dục

Sunday, 22 March 2009

Nước Mỹ trong mắt người châu Á

Chi tiêu quá nhiều, đánh thuế quá nhiều và vay mượn quá nhiều => great! It is the world where we live.

Dầu khí BP chuyển hướng ... vì cái gì ta?

Người Việt xấu xí

Ít ra bà con cũng biết tự nhìn lại mình.

Tuesday, 10 March 2009

JPMorgan Says S&P 500 Will Bottom by May: Technical Analysis khi bà con cũng bắt đầu tìm đến các thầy bói phân tích kỹ thuật như tui.

By Elizabeth Stanton

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The stock market sell-off that sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down 57 percent in 17 months will end by May after the benchmark falls as much as 11 percent more, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Michael Krauss, the firm’s chief technical strategist, said the S&P 500 will fall to 650 points “within days,” a 3.9 percent drop from yesterday’s close. It will then rally for two to three weeks, gaining as much as 18 percent to 765, before dropping to a range of 650 to 600 by May. Technical analysts make predictions based on patterns in price charts and market data.

Krauss expects “a significant percentage rally” in the second half that could lift the benchmark by as much as 67 percent from its bottom to 1,000 by Dec. 31. That would give the index, off to its worst annual start ever following a 25 percent plunge, an 11 percent gain for 2009.

“We expect a major S&P 500 bottom in the 650-600 zone in the weeks ahead,” Krauss, who is based in New York, wrote in a report dated yesterday.

Krauss’s forecast that the sell-off will end in that range is based partly on a prediction that the S&P 500’s drop below 1,100 in October was the midpoint of its decline. He also uses the wave principle, a theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. Elliott concluded that market swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward, two steps back.

Krauss said his November prediction that the index would climb back to 1,100 by year-end “is too aggressive.” The “worst-case scenario” is a decline to 549, a level 65 percent below the October 2007 peak, Krauss said. That’s where a line drawn through the market’s 1942 and 1974 lows on a logarithmic scale intersects the current month. A weekly or monthly close below 549 “would prove us totally wrong,” he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at