Barclays analysts say while they favor broad dollar weakness in the short-term, they believe the prospect of a second quantitative easing is largely priced in, so short-dollar positions could be vulnerable. That also means that if the dollar strengthens, that will put a cap on gold’s rally. They also note the one-month rolling correlation between the euro/dollar is 50% and the three-month correlation is 30%.
If the dollar strengthens, that will put a cap on gold’s rally. -> Of course! But how largely priced in the QE2, let see. They still have the story of inflation and uncertainty of trade wars. Wait, we still have the foreclosure story and stock markets. So, how do we know what is priced in?
Will we have "buy the rumour, sell the fact" pattern? I like it now.