Wednesday, 31 August 2011

Suy thoái kinh tế thế giới - Will this time be different?

Kinh tế Mỹ đang phục hồi rất "đặc biệt"

S&P nhận định rủi ro kinh tế châu Âu suy thoái lần 2 đang tăng lên


My bet: Big firms hoard cash (1.1 trillion cash and shorterm investments), small firms lack of funds.

In the US, so many people are losing jobs in the public sector.

Question: Which one, big or small firms, are job creators? I guess small ones. But I think only when large firms expand, then small firms can survive. So, it is not about expanding credits, but it is about create incentives for large firms to invest. Now they don't because they see weak demand and growth opportunities.

People will not spend if their job prospects are in danger and when they cannot pay off their mortgage.

Overall, uncertainty matters.

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