Market brief 28 May

Thị trường châu Á thì vẫn lạc quan, VN nằm trong số đó.

The markets across Asia open for trading on last day of the week ended in positive territory taking cues from Wall Street where the major averages ended the previous session with smart gains led by financial and technology stocks. Higher prices of commodities and oil prices also lifted market sentiment as concerns about Europe debt crisis showed signs of easing a little for the present.

In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 Index gained 123.26 points, or 1.3%, to 9763, while the broader Topix index of all First Section issues also rose 8.63 points, or 1.0%, to 879.

On the economic front, a report released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications revealed that core consumer prices in the country declined 1.5% on year in the month of April, compared to the mean expectations for a drop of 1.4% in prices, following the 1.2% decline in the previous month.

A report released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry revealed that retail sales in the country increased 4.9% on year in April to 11.401 trillion yen, sharply higher economists' forecast for a 3.3% annual increase, following the 4.7% increase in the previous month. The report further noted that on a monthly basis, retail sales added 0.5%, defying expectations for a 1.0% decline after adding 0.8% in March.

Nhưng có một số questions:

Có thiệt là thị trường VN bùng nổ tăng giá?

http://cafef.vn/20100528090139991CA31/bung-no-phien-cuoi-tuan-vnindex-tang-1583-diem.chn

hay là ... bull trap?

http://cafef.vn/20100528115220713CA31/pennystock-lai-day-song-vong-hai-hay-cai-bay.chn

Nổi sóng để thoát hàng?

Một thực tế là đa số các CP nóng trong tháng 4 vừa qua đều đem về một tỷ suất lợi nhuận quá “khủng” nếu NĐT nào may mắn vào đúng đáy và thoát ra đúng đỉnh. Dĩ nhiên cơ hội “ăn” trọn con sóng tăng là rất thấp, nhưng mức lợi nhuận này cũng đủ làm hoa mắt và không ít NĐT. “Khó NĐT nào cưỡng lại được một cơ hội sinh lời cao như vậy. Nếu lại có một con sóng thứ hai NĐT đã bỏ lỡ chịu sao nổi?” - một NĐT chia sẻ trên diễn đàn.


Cùng chung nhận định này, khối phân tích của CTCK Âu Việt cho rằng, thị trường đang bị chi phối chủ yếu bởi các NĐT cá nhân. Việc các CP rớt giá mạnh thời gian qua từ 30-50% là một yếu tố kích thích rất lớn cho nhiều NĐT lướt sóng và tâm lý dường như chuyển dịch nhanh từ sợ khủng hoảng sang sợ “lỡ sóng”.

Diễn biến thị trường VN chắc chưa discount 1 số xu thế trên thị trường Mỹ:


U.S. Stocks, Oil, Euro Tumble as Treasuries Rally on Spain

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ak36iR.sUYhs&pos=1

Mặc dù thiệt ra kinh tế Mỹ tiếp tục cho thấy số liệu khá khả quan

On the economic front, Reuters and the University of Michigan released their final report on consumer sentiment in the month of May, showing an unexpected upward revision to their consumer sentiment index for the month.

The consumer sentiment index for May was upwardly revised to a reading of 73.6 from the mid-month reading of 73.3. The upward revision, which pushed the index well above the final April reading of 72.2, came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to be downwardly revised to 73.2.

The Institute for Supply Management - Chicago released a separate report showing that manufacturing activity in the Chicago-area expanded for the eight consecutive month in May, although the pace of growth showed a notable slowdown compared to the previous month.

The ISM Chicago said its index of regional manufacturing activity fell to 59.7 in May from 63.8 in April, but a reading above 50 indicates continued growth in the sector. Economists had expected the index to slip to a reading of 60.0.

Before the opening bell, the Commerce Department reported that personal income increased by 0.4 percent in April, matching the upwardly revised increase seen in the previous month. Economists had expected income to increase by 0.4 percent compared to the 0.3 percent growth originally reported for March.

On the other hand, the Commerce Department also said that personal spending came in unchanged in April after surging up by 0.6 percent in March. The lack of growth came as a surprise to economists, who had expected spending to increase by 0.3 percent.


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A little bit funny, là hôm trước báo VN có đăng bài này:

http://cafef.vn/20100526114637362CA31/thoi-cua-dau-tu-gia-tri.chn

Là hôm sau penny lại run upward (chứng tỏ very high SMB premium ở VN, khỏi test).

http://cafef.vn/20100526094059219CA31/nhom-co-phieu-penny-tro-lai-dan-dat.chn

Nhiều mã có tính đầu cơ cao đồng loạt tăng trần.

So characteristics của dòng tiền VN cho đến nay là vốn đầu cơ làm chủ và nhắm vào penny stocks. Tình hình này chắc cũng còn kéo dài lâu lắm.

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Kết thúc 1 tuần vui vẻ cho VN, nhưng không nên chủ quan.

Bonus 1 cái cho gold market:

Gold is testing resistance at the December 2009 high of $1220. Respect would warn of a down-swing to primary support at $1060 — confirmed if support at $1170 is broken — while breakout would signal an advance to $1380*.