Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences 2010: Who will win

Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences is scheduled to be announced next Monday.

http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/

Who will win?

A few names suggested by Thomson Reuters' model:

http://science.thomsonreuters.com/nobel/2010predictions/#economics

A larger pool here

http://science.thomsonreuters.com/nobel/categories/economics/

Another predictions for Enviromental Economics here:

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=494426617597

Looking backwards, there is a lag in successful predictions of Thomson Reuters:

http://science.thomsonreuters.com/nobel/successful-predictions/

From those criteria (non-controversial topics, crisis-related topics, and lag issues), a few names can be taken out:

William D. Nordhaus and Martin Weitzman (Environmental Economics, Thomson list 2008)

Dale Jorgenson (Thomson list 2006, many topics, including environmental issues)

Jagdish N. Bhagwati (Internation Economics, Thomson list 2006)

John H. Moore and Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (Kiyotaki-Moore model, Thomson nominated for 2010, shock in economy and credit environment)

Jean Tirole, Richard H. Thaler, and Paul Michael Romer (my favourite authors and they are in the Thomson list). Although, must admit, they might have lower chance.

Any more guess?