Tuesday, 31 May 2011
Nhập siêu & nút thắt nền kinh tế
Nhập siêu "khủng" và những nút thắt của nền kinh tế
Nhập siêu hiện nay cũng do tác động lan tỏa trong quá khứ dài hạn của một cơ cấu kinh tế kém hiệu quả, duy trì lâu tình trạng gia công. Việt Nam là một nước đi sau, có lợi thế để phát triển nền nông nghiệp chất lượng cao, đi cùng với nó là phát triển các ngành công nghiệp chế biến nông sản phục vụ cho xuất khẩu, công nghiệp cơ khí phục vụ nông nghiệp.
Song Việt Nam đang bỏ ngỏ các ngành công nghiệp hỗ trợ cho nông nghiệp, dành thị phần này cho các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài chiếm lĩnh, tạo nên kênh nhập khẩu các hàng hóa phục vụ cho phát triển nông nghiệp.
Nhập siêu hiện nay cũng do tác động lan tỏa trong quá khứ dài hạn của một cơ cấu kinh tế kém hiệu quả, duy trì lâu tình trạng gia công. Việt Nam là một nước đi sau, có lợi thế để phát triển nền nông nghiệp chất lượng cao, đi cùng với nó là phát triển các ngành công nghiệp chế biến nông sản phục vụ cho xuất khẩu, công nghiệp cơ khí phục vụ nông nghiệp.
Song Việt Nam đang bỏ ngỏ các ngành công nghiệp hỗ trợ cho nông nghiệp, dành thị phần này cho các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài chiếm lĩnh, tạo nên kênh nhập khẩu các hàng hóa phục vụ cho phát triển nông nghiệp.
Monday, 30 May 2011
Nợ Châu Âu
Athens tested by IMF bail-out negotiations - 15 May
IMF tells Greece to speed up reforms - 18 May
Greece to sell stakes in state-owned groups - 24 May
Greek assets could go to ‘fund of experts’ - 24 May
Europe's Split on Debt Crisis Hardens - 25 May
Greece set for severe bail-out conditions - 29 May
Orderly Greek restructuring a ‘fairytale’ - 29 May
Greek rescue deal fraught with difficulty
----------------
Impacts
European Banks Fear Consequences of Unresolved Greek Debt Crisis
Greece: What Would Happen If it Defaulted?
IMF tells Greece to speed up reforms - 18 May
Greece to sell stakes in state-owned groups - 24 May
Greek assets could go to ‘fund of experts’ - 24 May
Europe's Split on Debt Crisis Hardens - 25 May
Greece set for severe bail-out conditions - 29 May
Orderly Greek restructuring a ‘fairytale’ - 29 May
Greek rescue deal fraught with difficulty
----------------
Impacts
European Banks Fear Consequences of Unresolved Greek Debt Crisis
Greece: What Would Happen If it Defaulted?
Euro prospect
Euro: franc view of a troubled currency
Simple but insightful view
The resilience of the euro against the dollar, therefore, should be viewed as yet another symptom of low Treasury yields, which have been a conundrum for the best part of a decade.
Should they ever start to rise in earnest, even though this would show lack of confidence in the US, the euro might well weaken against the dollar.
Simple but insightful view
The resilience of the euro against the dollar, therefore, should be viewed as yet another symptom of low Treasury yields, which have been a conundrum for the best part of a decade.
Should they ever start to rise in earnest, even though this would show lack of confidence in the US, the euro might well weaken against the dollar.
Gold signaling hyperinflation?
Commentary: Gold bugs cite lack of faith in paper money
... or is it faith in technical analysis, lol ? Or much simpler, momentum trades?
... or is it faith in technical analysis, lol ? Or much simpler, momentum trades?
Oil price shocks
Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market - Lutz Killian
Shocks to the real price of oil may reflect oil supply shocks, shocks to the global demand for all industrial commodities, or demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Each shock has different effects on the real price of oil and on US macroeconomic aggregates. Changes in the composition of shocks help explain why regressions of macroeconomic aggregates on oil prices tend to be unstable.
Evidence that the recent surge in oil prices was driven primarily by global demand shocks helps explain why this shock so far has failed to cause a major recession in the United States.
Shocks to the real price of oil may reflect oil supply shocks, shocks to the global demand for all industrial commodities, or demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Each shock has different effects on the real price of oil and on US macroeconomic aggregates. Changes in the composition of shocks help explain why regressions of macroeconomic aggregates on oil prices tend to be unstable.
Evidence that the recent surge in oil prices was driven primarily by global demand shocks helps explain why this shock so far has failed to cause a major recession in the United States.
Summer Rally: A dream?
An early-summer night’s dream
I measured this gain using the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in 1896. What I found might initially impress you: On average over the last 115 years, the Dow gained 5.3% from the end of May through its highest close over the next three months.
(...) BUT
... for each month of the calendar in addition to May, I calculated the Dow’s gain from the end of that month to its highest close over the subsequent three months. It turns out that the average of those other months’ “rallies” was 5.2%—statistically indistinguishable from what it was in the case of the so-called Summer Rally.
NOW, WE KNOW.
Wait a minute, even more,
Without outlier years like that one, the Summer Rally loses even more statistical support.
Since 1940, for example, the average Dow gain from the end of May to its highest close over the next three months is just 4.0%. Seven of the other 11 months of the calendar sport higher average gains than this.
I measured this gain using the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in 1896. What I found might initially impress you: On average over the last 115 years, the Dow gained 5.3% from the end of May through its highest close over the next three months.
(...) BUT
... for each month of the calendar in addition to May, I calculated the Dow’s gain from the end of that month to its highest close over the subsequent three months. It turns out that the average of those other months’ “rallies” was 5.2%—statistically indistinguishable from what it was in the case of the so-called Summer Rally.
NOW, WE KNOW.
Wait a minute, even more,
Without outlier years like that one, the Summer Rally loses even more statistical support.
Since 1940, for example, the average Dow gain from the end of May to its highest close over the next three months is just 4.0%. Seven of the other 11 months of the calendar sport higher average gains than this.
Sunday, 29 May 2011
Economist: Ngân hàng cần bao nhiêu vốn
Dịch lại 1 bài trong special report trên Economist. Bản gốc : How much is enough?
Ngân hàng cần bao nhiêu vốn (1): Một tấm đệm và ba lớp lót
Ngân hàng cần bao nhiêu vốn (2): “Sống” chưa đủ, còn phải “làm”
Ngân hàng cần bao nhiêu vốn (1): Một tấm đệm và ba lớp lót
Ngân hàng cần bao nhiêu vốn (2): “Sống” chưa đủ, còn phải “làm”
Case study: Share-buybacks ở VN
Công ty niêm yết mua lại cổ phiếu quỹ
Doanh nghiệp đăng ký mua cổ phiếu quỹ: Con dao hai lưỡi - Một số bình luận
Doanh nghiệp đăng ký mua cổ phiếu quỹ: Con dao hai lưỡi - Một số bình luận
Thursday, 26 May 2011
Đề xuất: Economic Calendar của VN
Ông Dominic Scriven: Kiến nghị Chính phủ lập "Lịch sự kiện kinh tế"
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
Social-networking & Brokerage firm
Morgan Stanley (MS) Smith Barney, the world’s largest brokerage, will let financial advisers market themselves and share ideas with clients through social- networking websites LinkedIn and Twitter.
Work Experience, Investors' Holdings and Performance
Do Individual Investors Have Asymmetric Information Based on Work Experience?
Using a novel dataset covering all individual investors' stock market transactions in Norway over 10 years, we analyze whether individual investors have a preference for professionally close stocks, and whether they make excess returns on such investments.
After excluding own-company stock holdings, investors hold on average 11% of their portfolio in stocks within their two-digit industry of employment. Given the poor hedging properties of professionally close stocks, one would expect such investments to be associated with asymmetric information and abnormally high returns. In contrast, all our estimates of abnormal returns are negative, in many cases statistically significant.
Overconfidence seems the most likely explanation for why individuals excessively trade in professionally close stocks.
Using a novel dataset covering all individual investors' stock market transactions in Norway over 10 years, we analyze whether individual investors have a preference for professionally close stocks, and whether they make excess returns on such investments.
After excluding own-company stock holdings, investors hold on average 11% of their portfolio in stocks within their two-digit industry of employment. Given the poor hedging properties of professionally close stocks, one would expect such investments to be associated with asymmetric information and abnormally high returns. In contrast, all our estimates of abnormal returns are negative, in many cases statistically significant.
Overconfidence seems the most likely explanation for why individuals excessively trade in professionally close stocks.
Wednesday, 11 May 2011
Tỷ giá
Chủ động giảm giá nội tệ ở mức vừa phải : Bài này phản hồi bài Nút thắt vẫn là tỷ giá của Huỳnh Thế Du.
Friday, 6 May 2011
UK house price predictions
House prices will fall in real terms for the next five years, a leading economic thinktank warned on Thursday, as new signs emerged that the already moribund market weakened in March.
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